SPORTS PICKS AND DISCUSSION

[homedog]

Haaaaa. Great story anny.

[homedog]

If you are going to have a heart attack that is the way to do it. I keep telling my wife she isn't trying hard enough.

[analyzer]

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While these days it's pretty easy to talk her into bed, she doesn't often wear lingerie, but she wore the fun stuff that night. She even wore heels to bed. That never happens. Whatever novel she was reading on the plane, I should write the author a thank you letter.

[analyzer]

Regarding college football betting, last year was a very unique situation, that we'll likely never see again: Many teams were largely the same as the year before. With the exception of those drafted by the NFL, and a few transfer portal kids, many teams were very similar to the year before, just a year older. Granted, they were playing in front of crowds again, which changes pressure on individuals. We saw the Nebraska place kicker go from Big 10 kicker of the year, to missing 50% of his field goals, and even a few extra points. The extra fan pressure ate him up. But otherwise, from a betting standpoint, it was extremely unique. You could use an entire season of data, to predict outcomes. It doesn't necessarily help you in bowl games, that's a completely different animal, trying to predict who's motivated, and who is not. But during the regular season, it was very helpful. Nebraska for instance, was almost identical to the year before, and very predictable. This year, not so much.

NIL, and the transfer portal, has made predicting early outcomes very difficult. Alot of research is going to be necessary to have decent early success. I would think it's going to be extremely difficult even for Vegas to put the proper line on a game. I would think we'll see some fairly heavy line movement, as sharps plunk down big early money, and the book realizes they may be way off. Either that, or Vegas, may have to hire more research analysts to figure it out.

Nebraska for instance, has used NIL and the transfer portal to grab several key players. They had a great transfer recruitment season. They brought in like 4 top defensive lineman alone. They were one of the worst punting teams in America, hell they were probably 100th in special teams in general. Just awful. But they brought in one of the best punters in college football from Montana, and brought in a great place kicker. They grabbed a pretty good QB transfer from Texas, as he could see he's not going to see the playing field. Adrian Martinez, who must be about 40 by now, still had one more year of eligibility left, but chose to transfer to Kstate to be with his girlfriend instead. The Nebraska fan base is split on whether that is a good thing or not. AM held lots of career records for Nebraska, but those of us who analyze his play, know that it's a good thing for the huskers that he left. While he's tough to bring down in the pocket, and a pretty good runner, he was slow to make decisions and release the football, often inaccurate, did not take care of the football (led all QB's in fumbling in his career), and would often step out of bounds instead of lowering his shoulder for a few more yards. He was horrible in the red zone, so much so that the coaches seem to abandon the passing game inside the 10. When you make slow decisions, are slow to release, and inaccurate to boot, that's not a good place to pass. But most of all, he was flat out awful in the last 2 or 3 minutes of games, with the game on the line. Either to get the winning or tying points in the last possession he was something like 1 for 20 ish. But that's when the other team knows you're going to throw the football, and he couldn't guide the team to points in that situation. Nebraska lost all 9 games by single digits last year, and most of it fell on him, and the special teams. I think they're better off moving on. With Frost on the Hot Seat, I think he knew it too, and probably encouraged AM to move on. He probably had told AM he was going to fall into a back up role. They had no choice.

Huskers are still looking for a stud receiver or two. No one seems to be breaking out. Their running backs seem to be in about the same situation. Their offensive line will continue to be a question mark. They've brought in a bunch of new coaches, so it's going to be hard to know how much affect that will have. But we brought in the OC from Pittsburgh, and he did a great job with that passing game. Apparently he's a pass first guy, so I wouldnt expect to see a big running game from Nebraska. They'll probably have higher scoring games.

I have to run, I will try to post some updates this year on the gophers and huskers to help people understand where those programs are. Maybe it'll give you an edge in a game or two.

[stevo]

What a story ANNY. I missed that. I'm with Homedog. You can still claim it was the sex. Just takes a while. Very jealous! Woke up for sex when wife gets home? Let me think.....................nope.

Thanks for story.

[stevo]

Thanks for write-up also. I hope life allows time for some good season ones on Gophers and Huskers this year.

[2nd Place Cwissy]

Adrian Martinez, who must be about 40 by now, still had one more year of eligibility left, but chose to transfer to Kstate to be with his girlfriend instead.

At least he won't be playing for Nebraska. No more Martinez's.

[KoolPappy]

This is the last weekend of 2022 without college football!

[homedog]

Oh yeah.

[stevo]

OK so looks like we’ll still keep this thread for everything great. In the sticky thread I have Nebraska at 9 o’clock.game and I just can’t wait for football. So beware a little on this one and look for yourself also.. do think they’ll win the first half easily and I have them in a Moneyline parlay that’s open for the first half. Just wanted to clarify since I kind of wasn’t that clear in original post. Just glad I have something to look forward to on Saturdays when I wake up NFL I don’t care as much but Saturdays are fun!

[analyzer]

OK so looks like we’ll still keep this thread for everything great. In the sticky thread I have Nebraska at 9 o’clock.game and I just can’t wait for football. So beware a little on this one and look for yourself also.. do think they’ll win the first half easily and I have them in a Moneyline parlay that’s open for the first half. Just wanted to clarify since I kind of wasn’t that clear in original post. Just glad I have something to look forward to on Saturdays when I wake up NFL I don’t care as much but Saturdays are fun!

I'm a little reluctant to predict Saturday's Husker outcome, but you know I can't resist. History has shown us, that Scott Frost struggles to get his teams to play disciplined football. Those mistakes are often magnified on the road. I think one of the best characteristics in a coach is those that can get their teams to A) Play loose, and B) play close to mistake free. Frost hasn't been able to do either. They literally stub their toe at every turn. They could have easily been 9-3 last year, instead of 3-9.

They opened with Illinois. Martinez couldn't have thrown a softball into an olympic swimming pool. He was awful. He had receivers wide open in the first half, and was clearly tight. He over threw some, under threw others, put rainbows on some, that the receivers nearly got killed coming back for. Missed a wide open receiver for a touchdown in the red zone. Meanwhile the husker punt returner, attempts to field a punt at the 2, that he was out of position for (bad coaching), and gives up a safety. Still the huskers get up 9-2 (missed extra point, that would prove to be common place all year), get an INT in Illinois territory, and return it to the Illini 30. Unfortunately, one of their defensive linemen, hit the QB late, very late (bad coaching), and took a dumb roughing the passer, and then couldn't let it go, and got an unsportsmanlike to boot. Instead of the Huskers having a 9-2 lead, and the ball at the illini 30. The illini retained possession and had it at the husker 20. HUGE swing. Illinois ties the game. Then Martinez, desperate to make up for it, tries to do too much with less than a minute left, gets strip sacked, and gives up a scoop and score, and it's 16-9 illini at the half. The illini, behind their back up QB, came out fired up (new coach last year Bielema, and 41 super seniors) drove the length of the field, chewed 9 minutes, and made it 23-9. That was essentially game. The illini added a very lucky bomb for a touchdown, that was well covered, and the Huskers never recovered from the 30-9 deficit. Nebraska scored a couple times to make it what should have been 30-23, but missed the last extra point, so they trailed 30-22. AM couldn't get it done on their final drive.

That was kind of the pattern all year. After pounding a couple patsies, the Huskers went into Norman, week 4, and despite missing a fg, trailed just 7-3 late in the 3rd. Huskers actually had a pretty good defense, their offense just couldn't stay on the field enough. OU makes it 14-3. Nebraska responds with a TD. It looks like the Huskers are going to trail just 14-10 going into the 4th quarter, and have a chance to put all the pressure on the rattled rattler. However, the Huskers had the extra point blocked, and the sooners housed it for a 2 point conversion. So instead of the Huskers celebrating a 14-10 game, and putting all the pressure squarely on Rattler, somehow, the Sooners are celebrating and the fans are going ape tit, after a NU touchdown. Go figure. Huskers trail 16-9, instead of 14-10. Football is not played in a vacuum. Your defense doesn't sit in a sound proof booth, while the offense is on the field, and comeout to a blank scoreboard. They're human, and affected by the swings in mo. When that kick gets blocked, the Sooners get a big edge in momentum and testosterone boost, and the Huskers get deflated. It's hard when you've been kicking the sooners ass all day, and the kicker is missing fgs and extra points. It's bound to cause you to lose a little heart. I truly believe, if the Huskers make that kick, they're fired up, the Sooner QB feels the pressure, grips the ball a little tight, and the Huskers probably get them 3 and out. Instead the reverse is true, and the sooners march right down the field for a touchdown, after basically doing nothing for several drives. I don't think it's coincidence. Huskers get one back, but eventually lose like 23-16 ish. This pattern just keeps repeating.

At Mich St, the Huskers are up 7, and did NOT give up a single first down in the entire 2nd half. But what happens? The offense has the ball with like 5 minutes left, and can't get a couple first downs. They have to punt with about 3 minutes left, shank the punt left, when their coverage is right, and MSU houses the punt return for a TD. In OT, Martinez has a guy wide open down the seem, inexplicably looks somewhere else, and throws an INT in the flat. Mich St wins the game 23-20. In basically every big 10 game last year, except NW, the Huskers were out played on special teams. They give up a punt return td to MSU, a kick return td to wisky, and a blocked punt return td to Iowa. They missed half their fgs and 4 extra points. it was a miserable year for special teams.

Against NW, it was no contest. Nebraska flat out smoked NW, something like 51-7. Many thought it would be the breakout that would change the pattern. Nope.

Vs Mich, I was at the game in Lincoln. The atmosphere was electric. Nebraska opened the game, and drove the length of the field. The crowd was ready to lose their mind. Huskers turned it over on downs at the 2. Should have grabbed the points, but Frost was sick of missing fgs. Nebraska couldn't buy a break, and trailed 13-0 at half time. Then suddenly they finally got a break. The refs missed that the huskers had an illegal formation (5 men in the backfield), and scored a long td reception to the tightend. Michigan answered, but missed the two point conversion for a 19-7 lead. Huskers scored again right before the end of the 3rd quarter. The crowd was deafening, and could sense the momentum swing. A couple plays later, the Huskers picked off Mich, and returned it inside the 20. One play later, ending the 3rd quarter the Huskers scored to take the lead. They also made the 2 point conversion, and the crowd went ballistic. They took the 22-19 lead just in time for their new 4th quarter light show to ACDC. It was insane. I have to tip my hat to the Wolverines. Most teams would have folded in that situation, but they held serve, and took the lead back.26-22. Nebraska answered 29-26, but again Michigan returned the favor and tied it at 29 with 3 minutes left. Again, we have a chance for Adrian Martinez to do what a veteran, former heisman candidate QB, should do, but he couldn't. On a 3rd and 2, QB read option, he kept up the middle. He had a wide open field outside left, but got tunnel vision and took the guaranteed 3 or 4 yards. Should have been a first down, but a slow whistle, and good strip by Michigan, and it's michigan ball inside the red zone. Michigan settled for their 4th field goal. By the way, they are playing on the road, in a madhouse, just like Ohio state, later in the season, and they both went 4-4 from mid to long fg range. Much of the special teams play in the big 10 was really good last year, if you didn't count the huskers. You just can't play shitting special teams and win in this league. Regardless, Mich now had a gift 32-29 lead, and Nebraska still had the ball with a buck thirty left. On first down, AM connected to the 50, and the crowd sensed something big. But it's really hard to throw well, with both hands firmly wrapped around your throat. On 1st and 10 from the 50, with about 1:10 left, all 5 linemen dive into the Mich linemans knees. This screams quick slant, or quick hit to a stop pattern. The Wideout at the top of the field does a 5 yard hitch. He's wide open, as the defender is dropping back and on his heels. Except AM doesn't throw the ball. My guess is his palms are sweaty, and he didn't get a good initial grip, and had to try again. Either that, or happy feet AM was more concerned about the defensive end, that was getting back up and charging. The pass was there, AM choked. He rolled to his right, threw late to the near boundary, and should have been picked off. On 2nd down, there is a crossing pattern across the middle 10 yards downfield. No real pressure on martinez, but he badly over throws the wide receiver. There was a wall of blockers set up on the near side, the receiver would have gotten 15-20 easy, and maybe housed it. Instead it's 3rd and 10. A screen pass gets blown up, and martinez misses on 4th down, and the game is over. AM had two tries to guide his team to victory in the last 2 minutes and couldn't get it done either time. The Mich QB, trailed twice in the 4th quarter, on the road, in a madhouse, and guided his team to points both times.

Nebraska goes into Minnesota, after having played 4 straight very emotional games. It was bound to be a let down. Even worse, the defensive coordinator, Eric Chinanders dad was killed in a car accident on that Thursday. Eric and Scott were childhood friends. HIs dad was like a 2nd dad to Scott. I'm sure those players could feel the pain. They came out flat against the Gophers, and the gophers killed them in the first half. In the 2nd half, the Huskers outplayed the gophers, but late in the game, when AM needed a score, he took a bad safety, and that basically ended the game.

Nebraska loses to Purdue by a score.

Nebraska is down 23-17 to Ohio St, has the ball first down inside the Buckeye 10 with about 7 minutes left in the game, with a chance to take the lead. Again the Husker home faithful is going nuts. But Nebraska fails to score, and then misses a 20 yard field goal that would have cut the game to 3. Again the defense has a let down. You can't blame them. You're ready to get fired up, and the missed field goal takes the crowd, and the defense out of the game. Ohio st marches for almost all of the remaining clock, and gets clinching field goal to win 26-17. It could have easily been a Nebraska win.

Nebraska completely dominates Iowa for 3 quarters, with the back up husker QB playing very well. However, leading 21-9 in the 4th quarter, the wheels fall off the bus again, when the Huskers have a punt blocked for a td. fumble at mid field. Give up a safety, and eventually lose 27-21. They get outscored 18-0 in the last 10 minutes. You can't make it up.

===================

So, what about Saturday? Huskers change out 3/4's of their coaching staff. Change starting QB's. PIck up a bunch of solid defensive linemen. Have great linebackers. Go out and get a good punter and a good kicker. And they kicked Northwestern's ass last year, before doing all that. NW really hasn''t done much to improve their team. Should be another slaughter like last year right? Problem is, they're playing in Ireland. We've seen a bunch of NFL games in London, that are low scoring slogs. I'm not sure I remember any high scoring shootouts. That probably plays into the Wildcats hands, and anyone taking the points. If you play Nebraska during the Frost era, the recipe for success is pretty simple. Don't beat yourself, and wait for the Husker implosion. Run the ball, run the clock, punt well, play defense, play field position, and wait for the huskers to turn it over, make mistakes, take penalties, give you a special teams gift or 3, get a late lead, and know that Adrian can't lead that Red horse to water.

Except it's not Adrian anymore. And they're likely to punt alot better. And they're less likely to miss field goals, and you may not be able to run the ball well against that defensive front, and veteran linebackers. And this Huskers team is going to throw the ball all over the field on you, likely will put some points on the board, and frankly, you pass like shit.

So the question becomes, are we going to see the same mistake prone huskers, or are they going to clean up their act. If you can answer that question, then you know whose going to cover. NW will not win this game because they're a really good football team. no far from it. IF they win, it's because the Huskers are choking again. Frost has been feeling the pressure since the day he stepped on campus, and it permeates his team. Until he figures out how to get them to play loose, they will continue to find weird ways to lose. Maybe the new OC can change that.

I think even a fairly mediocre Huskers team is far more talented than this version of the Wildcats. I think the Huskers win. I'm a little worried for your first half bet, because it's the first game, it's in Ireland, there is bound to be jitters and jetlag. But the Huskers should prevail, and I think they will eventually pull away. I'm thinking like 34-20. 20 might be generous for the Wildcats, but they'll probably get a gift. 27-14 is in the realm of possiblity. If the Wildcats win, they're going to have to do it with 23 or fewer points. If you're taking the cats, you may as well take the under. I don't think I want either side of the total. I'm worried the Cats won't contribute much, and if the Huskers get rolling, there's about 4 years of frustration ready to let loose. If think there's about a 50% chance the huskers win a close one-score game. A 20% chance the Cats win close and ugly, and about a 30% chance the Huskers steam roll them something like 42-14. If you really want to play a total, I think I'd find a NW team total under the number. It must be about 19. i think they are about 66% to fall short of that. These two have played alot of really close football games, and the Huskers have been god awful on the road, and Ireland screams of distractions and jet lag, and opening games scream of jitters and mistakes, so you would think taking the points would be the right play. Was that a run on sentence? lol. Husker fans have forever drunken the coolaid, and pushed the number a few points high. This spread really ought to be 9.5 or 10. I don't think there is a whole lot of value laying 12.5. But my honest opinion is if you put a gun to my head, I'm laying the 12.5. I think NW sucks a little too much to take that side of the football. It might be one of those games you're watching it go 14-0, 14-7, 21-7, 21-10, 24-10, and you're continually sweating the number. If you got an early season itch you want to scratch, put some money on the game, if you want to make money, then wait for a better day. There have been way too many changes to this Husker team and coaching staff, to really have any idea how they're going to play. I just think NW sucks, and Nebraska is likely to reverse course, at least a little. one can hope.

[analyzer]

From an emotional standpoint, the Huskers crushed the Cats last year, so they probably come in confident, if not OVERconfident. The cats got embarrassed last year, and are probably using that as motivation. Huskers need to step on their throat early, and not let them hang around. They don't want a repeat of last years Illinois game to start the season.

[KoolPappy]

Analyzer with the usual awesome write up!

[analyzer]

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While they're in a strange locker room, and playing in a strange atmosphere, and jet lag may also play a role, the crowd is likely to be mostly Husker fans. Husker Nation travels really well.

[analyzer]

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I Love college football. It's Crazy that fans will travel across the Atlantic to watch a football game. And it's not like there's 6 of them. Go Big Red!!