SPORTS PICKS AND DISCUSSION

[analyzer]

Some of the rule changes even help them fix games. They used to throw a flag on about 50% of the kickoff returns for touchdowns. When they're trying to control the over/under narrative, they can't have some sort of surprise kick return for a touchdown. So they used to throw lots of flags. But with todays cameras, high def etc, they were running into a problem. The cameras couldn't find the phantom block in the back. They couldn't find the phantom hold. So, in the name of safety, the NFL changes the kickoff rules, and now we almost never have a kick return for a td.

It was also tough to ask a kicker to miss 2 extra points in a game, from the short porch. Doug Brien did it once, Vikings vs Bills, but it would look fishy if you asked too many kickers to miss too many extra points, when the league was kicking short extra points at a 96% clip. Well, move them back to the 16, make them kick 33 yarders, and now no one blinks when a kicker misses two in a game. Now they can have teams win quarters 7-6. They can have them miss 2 point conversions trying to play catch up, and mess with lines.

Those two special teams rule changes were critical in controlling the narrative. Vegas and the NFL are treating live betting like a slot machine. Programmed pay outs, right down to the prop bets, and quarter bets, etc. Thats why your favorite fantasy football receiver, suddenly inexplicably doesn't even get looks during a game. Set a prop bet that is really juicy, and then step on it.

[analyzer]

They make so much money off live betting, we are now seeing a flurry of random time outs by coaches, when it doesn't really make sense. Sometimes on defense, in late game situations, to "set their defense", but I would argue it's so they can give bettors more time to get their bets in. Think of the KC/Bengals game. Right before the boneheaded play, that resulted in zero points before half, the Bengals had called a timeout "to set their defense". I can only imagine what the live choices were for first half results, just prior to that play. Live Bettors probably bent over and took it in the keester when KC didn't even get a a fg out of it.

[Big Baller]

OK:-
So, you guys have established that these games are fixed, you watch every millisecond of when a player makes a mistake.

Great job, so, thru all of these episodes, where is the Money Correlation?
Should be easy, and part of your algorithm, Let me in, tired of being on other end.

[howid]

problem is, ''the call from vegas'' can come in anytime lol.

[analyzer]

problem is, ''the call from vegas'' can come in anytime lol.

I swear that's why Tom Brady didn't want anyone to see his cell phone during deflategate, not because of silly deflated footballs.

[analyzer]

A friend of mine, who is a big football fan, and happens to buy into the fix theory, watches the QB's faces looking for tells. She'll call me sometime, and we'll be noticing how some QB looks like their mother just died, and then they proceed to throw 3 picks. We noticed it coming out of half time, the one year the patriots lost to a 1 win Miami team. Pats were up, but Tom had this sick look on his face. Perma frown. He throws 3 picks, and the fish come back to win. I saw it once on Joey Harrington's face. It was odd for him to have the look on his face, because his lions had just scored a last second td to "tie" the game with the vikings. He shouldn't have been upset, but then he fumbled the snap for the extra point, and the vikings won by one. Funny, the spread was Queens -1.5. Favorite wins, but doesn't cover.

I don't know how you would know when the call comes in. But realizing it was fixed, helped me stop betting big on the NFL. I had a bookie that had been in the business for 20 years. He said when you're a book, you have to have enough funds to survive a 3 or 4 week stretch, when things are going well for the public, but he said he never had a losing season. not once in 20 years.

There are times when I'm certain the vikings are going to lose.. it's often a game they have no business losing, like the lions this year. Or even to Dallas when theyr'e starting a QB who hasn't thrown a pass in 4 years. Vikings have a tendency to lose those games every year. Several years ago, when the bills were one of the worst teams in the league, the Vikings were 17 point favorites, and got blown out. It was like 27-7. It was the first time a 17 point favorite had lost in the NFL, in like 12 years or something like that. Leave it to the vikings. There was a year that they lost to a 1 win and a 2 win AFC west opponent in the same year, yet were on the bubble for the playoffs. Much like this year.

[Big Baller]

A friend of mine, who is a big football fan, and happens to buy into the fix theory, watches the QB's faces looking for tells. She'll call me sometime, and we'll be noticing how some QB looks like their mother just died, and then they proceed to throw 3 picks. We noticed it coming out of half time, the one year the patriots lost to a 1 win Miami team. Pats were up, but Tom had this sick look on his face. Perma frown. He throws 3 picks, and the fish come back to win. I saw it once on Joey Harrington's face. It was odd for him to have the look on his face, because his lions had just scored a last second td to "tie" the game with the vikings. He shouldn't have been upset, but then he fumbled the snap for the extra point, and the vikings won by one. Funny, the spread was Queens -1.5. Favorite wins, but doesn't cover.

I don't know how you would know when the call comes in. But realizing it was fixed, helped me stop betting big on the NFL. I had a bookie that had been in the business for 20 years. He said when you're a book, you have to have enough funds to survive a 3 or 4 week stretch, when things are going well for the public, but he said he never had a losing season. not once in 20 years.

There are times when I'm certain the vikings are going to lose.. it's often a game they have no business losing, like the lions this year. Or even to Dallas when theyr'e starting a QB who hasn't thrown a pass in 4 years. Vikings have a tendency to lose those games every year. Several years ago, when the bills were one of the worst teams in the league, the Vikings were 17 point favorites, and got blown out. It was like 27-7. It was the first time a 17 point favorite had lost in the NFL, in like 12 years or something like that. Leave it to the vikings. There was a year that they lost to a 1 win and a 2 win AFC west opponent in the same year, yet were on the bubble for the playoffs. Much like this year.

Good stuff, yeah, with good TVs now, I watch where they look after they break huddle, ,

-Saw an African Soccer game last week, it went to PKs, which is about as stressful, per player (besides individual Kicker) as it can be. The first guy steps up, then complains about someone warming up by the sidelines, or goalie,, didn't matter, I knew he was going to miss, he shanked it over, badly..

-Only QB that you can't get a read on: Herbert for the Chargers, he sits there on sidelines, you wouldn't know if he was winning, losing, or his grandma just died.. Like that kid.
I always attributed it to the fact that hes a rich trustfunder, maybe he's calculating how much he's making per game, after taxes..

[clevfan]

Bengals +4 today

[Fantasy Cwissy]

You watching this shit, Anny? Stafford runs a play 3rd and long without taking it down to the 2 minute warning and the play is a forced throw into the endzone. Pound the Bungals 2HT. Unfortunately I post this. I have the Lambs. It's happening again.

[Fantasy Cwissy]

You cee, Anny. You cee.

[Fantasy Cwissy]

And Stafford did it again. This time the 4th qtr 2 minute warning. Snapped the ball at 2:02.

[Fantasy Cwissy]

That's twice. This time it could cost the Lambs the game.

[analyzer]

I wrote the script to my friend. Pregame, they were saying the best possible result, was Rams win, don't cover, and the under. Fck the Cinci ML players. Give the public the cinci spread, but don't give them the over. Take all the whales money on the Rams spread. So mid third quarter when it's 20-16. I tell my buddy, this must be the part where they lay down for the under, and it becomes punt fest. Which it did. I said the Rams will score a late TD to win 23-20. Which they did.

Pregame, I was talking to my buddy, and I said, you know, this entire playoffs has been "made for TV, thrilling drama". Every game coming down to the last second. They are starting a new TV Contract in 2023, I wonder if any of that contract has escalators for TV ratings? With Covid, you'd think it would be incentive lade, as there is so much uncertainty.

Either way, I was thinking, why not bet the game to play close?

Cinci +7 1/2 -165
Rams +7 1/2 -575.

So you bet $412.50 on Cinci plus 7 1/2 to win $250

$575 to win $100 on the Rams plus 7 1/2 to win $100.

So at that point, you're risking either $325, or $312.50 to win $350. You can't lose both bets, but you can sweep if you middle. Normally, history of the superbowl would suggest more often than not, it would land outside that box, and be a bad bet, but this year, it seems they were scripting tight, dramatic ballgames. Almost like they were desperate to drive up ratings. You're basically getting +110 betting that the final margin will be with 7.5 points. In this case, would've been a good bet.

I didn't put anything on the game. My buddy wanted to know what I would bet, and I said gun to my head, the under. He took under 24 in the first half. That weird drop by the holder, won him his under bet. Not to mention a very questionable call, with the rams at mid-field facing 3rd and 1, and they throw a deep low percentage sideline route. Get the first down. It was stupid.

[analyzer]

Uconn 1-5 ats 1h, last 6 games. Just sayin. They're pretty good at laying down on superbowl weekend. I bet they haven't covered the 1h spread, more than 3 times in the last 13 years on SB weekend.

[Fantasy Cwissy]

Stafford got it done despite several curious, suspicious plays.