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HANDICAPPER'S CHALLENGE CONTEST (UPDATED)

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  • HANDICAPPER'S CHALLENGE CONTEST (UPDATED)

    Contest starts today, altho we will accept new signups thru Friday Aug 30. I must have your money before you are allowed to make picks.

    We will go with NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL ONLY. You can wager on sides, totals, moneylines and parlays (8 team max). The 2 books that you can use for your lines are BOOKMAKER AND BETONLINE

    Everyone starts with a bankroll of $10,000. You lose your bankroll and you are out. There are no limits on how often or how many picks you want to make....just grade your picks promptly.

    As for parlays, use this parlay calculator as shown by Analyzer:

    vegasinsider table:

    2 team 13/5
    3 team 6/1
    4 team 10/1
    5 team 20/1
    6 team 40/1
    7 team 75/1
    8 team 150/1

    copy and paste your bet like this:

    Analyzer Bankroll prior to wager $10,300
    Bet $110 to win $100 Alabama -39.5 vs SW Missouri St Co-Rec Saturday Sept 4th.
    betonline
    , August 29th, 11:30 pm.


    Something like that. Just so we can see where you saw the line, and when, and what you intend to risk. If you just say you're betting $50, we don't know if you're risking $50 or $55, we don't know if your line was -105, -110, or -120 etc. I would prefer you show the risk amount, and payout.

    I have created a subforum for the contest, each player has their own thread to post their plays in and keep track of their bankroll. I will also include a discussion thread, in that thread you can trashtalk, comment to one another or point out mistakes.

    I'm sure that there is stuff I may have left out in this thread, so please feel free to add comments of what I need to add to rules.

    HERE IS CONTEST FORUM LINK:
    https://www.majorwagerforum.com/foru...sy-sports-talk

  • #2
    We have 2 players that have posted picks....Cwissy made a cwazy one

    Comment


    • #3
      It appears Baller made his from 5dimes. You may want to make it clear to him that that book is not one of the official books.
      "If life throws you curve balls, sit on it, and put it in the 2nd deck"..... yeah, well, that's nice, but I could never hit a damn curve ball.

      Comment


      • #4
        The following have paid
        1. Big Baller
        2. Stevo/ Norm
        3. Drunkengoon
        4. Christopher Smith
        5. TheGuesser
        6. Clevfan
        7. Analyzer
        8. Cwissy
        9. Brian Edwards

        so we have $900.00 + 500.00 (added my MW management) = 1400.00

        should we do just first place gets the prize money or first and second?

        Comment


        • #5
          There’s still time to enter...deadline is Aug 30

          Comment


          • #6
            Since Cwissy busted out, he would like to do a buy-in....my vote is yes...anyone who busts out before August 30 can do a buy-in....is that ok with you guys?

            Comment


            • #7
              I'm fine with anyone re-buying up to August 30.
              I lost both of my bets, down 2250 myself.
              Really liked the Florida pick, they shit the bed..

              also- Can we authorize 5Dimes as official book? Much easier for me to copy and paste my official ticket from 5Dimes, than take a picture of the other book,, like Analyzer I don't even know how to do that. I rarely get a good number and doubt that using the book that most people use (5Dimes) will make a difference.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Big Baller View Post
                I'm fine with anyone re-buying up to August 30.
                I lost both of my bets, down 2250 myself.
                Really liked the Florida pick, they shit the bed..

                also- Can we authorize 5Dimes as official book? Much easier for me to copy and paste my official ticket from 5Dimes, than take a picture of the other book,, like Analyzer I don't even know how to do that. I rarely get a good number and doubt that using the book that most people use (5Dimes) will make a difference.
                I don't have a problem with it. I think they didn't want people to gain an advantage with reduced lines. As well, I'm not sure you can access 5dimes lines without an account. I think that's why they suggested Bookmaker and Betonline, because you don't have to have an account to see the lines.

                It would give you an advantage if you have access to 3 books. But, in my opinion, if you only want to use 5dimes throughout the contest, and never utilize the other two, then you would not be gaining any advantage, and in fact would have a disadvantage, so I wouldn't have a problem with it. And if you're pasting your tickets like that, we can see you had access to that line.
                "If life throws you curve balls, sit on it, and put it in the 2nd deck"..... yeah, well, that's nice, but I could never hit a damn curve ball.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Here's the problem with Cwissy buying back-in. He's most likely going to do his all-in bet again. And, if it loses he's out $200. But, if it wins, he doubled his bankroll to $20,000 and can wait everybody out by not placing another bet until someone's bankroll exceeds his $20,000. Everyone here knows that it is difficult to double one's bankroll over the course of the college and nfl season. I don't want to have to keep thinking that at some point I have to make sure that my (well actually stevo's) bankroll is above $10,000 so that by the Superbowl I can go all-in with a chance to exceed Cwissy's $20,000. I have no problem if he buys back-in and is not allowed to bet his entire bankroll until the Super Bowl. And, that the most that he can wager on any game for the remainder of the contest is (say 25%) of his bankroll. Thus, he can try to get back to that $20,000 amount once he gets his bankroll up to $16,000.


                  BTW, I thought that his all-in strategy is a good one. His problem (to me) was that he bet a game that the line was pretty accurate since there wasn't much movement on this line after it opened at (I believe) Florida -8. The game to do this on is a game that doesn't have much public betting interest and one you feel strongly that the line is either too high or too low.


                  I love analyzer's contest idea here. But, as you can see, someone will always try an angle that might not have been analyzer's intention with his virtually no rules or limits betting approach. In other words, there's always someone trying to work an angle when you have no constraints.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I am just going to use Bookmaker and Betonline from here on out, to avoid any controversy.
                    I just looked at their website, user friendly.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by AKNorman View Post
                      Here's the problem with Cwissy buying back-in. He's most likely going to do his all-in bet again. And, if it loses he's out $200. But, if it wins, he doubled his bankroll to $20,000 and can wait everybody out by not placing another bet until someone's bankroll exceeds his $20,000. Everyone here knows that it is difficult to double one's bankroll over the course of the college and nfl season. I don't want to have to keep thinking that at some point I have to make sure that my (well actually stevo's) bankroll is above $10,000 so that by the Superbowl I can go all-in with a chance to exceed Cwissy's $20,000. I have no problem if he buys back-in and is not allowed to bet his entire bankroll until the Super Bowl. And, that the most that he can wager on any game for the remainder of the contest is (say 25%) of his bankroll. Thus, he can try to get back to that $20,000 amount once he gets his bankroll up to $16,000.


                      BTW, I thought that his all-in strategy is a good one. His problem (to me) was that he bet a game that the line was pretty accurate since there wasn't much movement on this line after it opened at (I believe) Florida -8. The game to do this on is a game that doesn't have much public betting interest and one you feel strongly that the line is either too high or too low.


                      I love analyzer's contest idea here. But, as you can see, someone will always try an angle that might not have been analyzer's intention with his virtually no rules or limits betting approach. In other words, there's always someone trying to work an angle when you have no constraints.
                      It's a bit like a blackjack tournament. Some people play very conservative, waiting for others to bust out, as the house has an advantage, others play very agressively trying to build quickly.

                      If players are allowed to rebuy, it would probably be a good play to make back to back all in plays,and try to get to 40k. 1 time in 4, they'll go 2-0. So yeah maybe they have to rebuy 3 times, but when they go 2-0, they have 40k, with like $400 into it, and a payout of $1,700, with about an 80% chance to win.

                      The problem with allowing buy ins after the contest starts, is a player sits out, waiting to see if they can gain an edge. If a couple people win early, they don't enter, if a couple people lose big early, they jump in. Its a disadvantage to those who are making bets already.
                      "If life throws you curve balls, sit on it, and put it in the 2nd deck"..... yeah, well, that's nice, but I could never hit a damn curve ball.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        My $100 is in, if I sit out, it can work for me or against me, but my $100 is in. Those that wait to enter, get to see if it works for them, and then buy in. if it works against them, they just don't enter, and they have no money at risk. It's a big advantage to those late to the dance.
                        "If life throws you curve balls, sit on it, and put it in the 2nd deck"..... yeah, well, that's nice, but I could never hit a damn curve ball.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Pretend you had a golf tournament, but people can enter for $100 mid way through the tourny. They sit out, if everyone shoots poorly, they buy in and play, but if anyone goes low early, and shoots a 31 on the front 9, then they just sit out, don't enter, and they've risked nothing. It's a big advantage to those waiting to enter.
                          "If life throws you curve balls, sit on it, and put it in the 2nd deck"..... yeah, well, that's nice, but I could never hit a damn curve ball.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Hypothetically, if all 10 of us had bet 10k on Miami last night and we were all sitting on 20k, there would be no late entries, conversely, if all 10 of us had taken florida, and all of us were sitting on zero, there would be a line of people waiting to grab $1,400. So there is no question the late comers have an edge by having info before they decide whether to enter or not.
                            "If life throws you curve balls, sit on it, and put it in the 2nd deck"..... yeah, well, that's nice, but I could never hit a damn curve ball.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Before the deadline entry of August 30th, there are college football games on August 24th (yesterday), August 29th (Thursday) and August 30th (Friday).....And, no NFL regular season games.


                              So, here's how this all-in angle could work, assuming that one can buy-in just one time each for Thursday and Friday college games.


                              Risk for yesterday's game: $100
                              Bet Loses-Buy-in for Thursday's games.....Bet Wins-Stand pat with your $20,000 bankroll until someone catches you. Now have risked $100 to possibly win $1,400 with a $20,000 bankroll.


                              Risk for Thursday's games because of buy-in: $200
                              Bet Loses-Buy-in for Friday's games.....Bet Wins-Stand pat with your $20,000 bankroll until someone catches you. Now have risked $200 to possibly win $1,500 with a $20,000 bankroll.


                              Risk for Friday's games because of buy-in: $300
                              Bet Loses-Lost $300-out of contest since no buy-in for games after August 30th.....Bet Wins-Stand pat with your $20,000 bankroll until someone catches you. Now have risked $300 to possibly win $1,600 with a $20,000 bankroll.


                              The only way that someone could definitely get hurt financially here is if they go 0-3. Once they get a win, they have a $20,000 bankroll and can play possum until someone else catches them, which could be difficult to do without going all-in or placing large wagers or hitting a long-shot parlay. The chase of the $20,000 bankroll could definitely make it interesting. That $20,000 bankroll will be tough to beat unless someone else goes all-in with a minimum bankroll of just over $10,000. Then, this contest could end-up being an all-in contest as each contestant waits for the best play that they feel can double their bankroll. Again, I think that the all-in bet is a good strategy. You just need to hope that you picked a good game to take your shot.

                              Comment

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